When clients ask how the real estate market is going to perform in your market, the first answer is to look at unemployment rates. If people are not working, chances are they do not have the finances to purchase a home. Additionally, when unemployment is low, there tends to be increased mobility as people move around for jobs. This morning, the Department of Labor reported that U.S. jobless claims fell to a 14-year low. What does this mean for the housing market and your clients?
The Facts: The national unemployment rate is down
The national unemployment rate is 5.9 percent. There are more people employed today than there were before the recession hit in 2008. Since recovery began, the unemployment rate has steadily decreased, showing signs of progressive improvement. Economists say we should never expect a zero percent unemployment rate. This is due to the fact that there will always be situations where people are in the process of career changes or have extenuating circumstances preventing them from being able to work.
The aha: You still need more information to paint a complete picture
The national unemployment rate sets the tone for the nation, but it is not the only figure agents should track. You should go beyond the national figures and look at the unemployment rate in your market. There are two main sources where local unemployment statistics can be located.
1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly reports on metropolitan area employment and unemployment data. The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for September is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, October 29, 2014, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT). You can access it by visiting the BLA website.
2. Your local Chamber of Commerce likely produces monthly reports about the job performance in your area. In some cities, you are not required to be a member in order to obtain this information. Search online to see what useful local market data you can find.
Another key component to consider when evaluating local market performance indicators is the presence of growth industries. Despite high unemployment rates in some regions, there are opportunities where growth industries exist. When regional areas slump, businesses often move operations in to take advantage of the lower costs. As a result, these companies create numerous job openings for either locals or other residents moving to town for the jobs. Agents who network with individuals in growth industries often find connections to potential clients because that is where the jobs are.
As the unemployment rate continues a steady decline, we should expect to see increased job competition and more competitive wages, both of which have a positive impact on the housing market.
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In October, 2014, Keller Williams initiated a new five part blog series, Market ahas. The quarterly series is designed to help our associates better serve as their clients’ local economists. The topics covered each quarter are mortgage rates, unemployment, price change, inventory, and GDP. This is the second article in the series for Q3 2014.
Read other articles in the series:
Mortgage Rates Are Down. What Does That Mean For Your Clients? [Q3-2014]